{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Israel Election: Likud # of seats? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Polymarket traders give 25-29 a 85.5% chance, with $4.25M traded. 5 markets, $4.25M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/israel-election-likud-of-seats.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-28",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-28T00:37:01.991Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$4.25M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$2.89M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "5"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "25-29 85.5%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Israel Election: Likud # of seats?",
    "slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-28T00:37:01.991Z",
    "volume_usd": 4254681.5921990005,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2893401.576803,
    "end_date": "2026-10-28T03:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "25-29",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.855
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.145
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1100086.794538
      },
      {
        "question": "30-34",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.132
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.868
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1736431.3184830004
      },
      {
        "question": "20-24",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0195
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9805
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 410986.968035
      },
      {
        "question": "35+",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0035
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9965
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 493701.29115100007
      },
      {
        "question": "<20",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.001
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.999
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 513475.21999199997
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.23
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      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.225
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      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.225
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      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.225
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      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.23
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      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.22
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      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.225
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      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.24
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.24
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.24
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.28
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.32
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.285
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      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.285
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.255
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.26
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.26
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.26
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.265
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.255
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.245
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-17",
        "v": 0.235
      },
      {
        "t": "10-18",
        "v": 0.21
      },
      {
        "t": "10-18",
        "v": 0.215
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.205
      },
      {
        "t": "10-19",
        "v": 0.215
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.2
      },
      {
        "t": "10-20",
        "v": 0.22
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.18
      },
      {
        "t": "10-21",
        "v": 0.205
      },
      {
        "t": "10-22",
        "v": 0.205
      },
      {
        "t": "10-23",
        "v": 0.225
      },
      {
        "t": "10-23",
        "v": 0.23
      },
      {
        "t": "10-24",
        "v": 0.215
      },
      {
        "t": "10-25",
        "v": 0.235
      },
      {
        "t": "10-26",
        "v": 0.215
      },
      {
        "t": "10-27",
        "v": 0.205
      },
      {
        "t": "10-27",
        "v": 0.165
      },
      {
        "t": "10-28",
        "v": 0.625
      },
      {
        "t": "10-28",
        "v": 0.86
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [],
    "drivers": [],
    "faq": [],
    "tags": [
      "Politics",
      "Likud",
      "Elections",
      "Global Elections",
      "Israel",
      "netanyahu",
      "Israel Election",
      "International Election Props"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Polymarket traders give 25-29 a 85.5% chance, with $4.25M traded.\n\n\n## Current odds\n\n- 25-29: 85.5% (vol $1.10M)\n- 30-34: 13.2% (vol $1.74M)\n- 20-24: 1.9% (vol $410,987)\n- 35+: 0.4% (vol $493,701)\n- <20: 0.1% (vol $513,475)\n\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Israel Election: Likud # of seats? on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  ],
  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}