{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs\": Map 1 Winner Vitality 100%. 12 markets, $3.01M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/cs2-vit-mouz-2026-10-11.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-11",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-11T15:45:58.830Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$3.01M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$3.03M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Vitality 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-10-11"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs",
    "slug": "cs2-vit-mouz-2026-10-11",
    "volume_usd": 3008730.6086729974,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3030513.190089,
    "end_date": "2026-10-11T21:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Map 1 Winner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 798913.7208699994
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1174.6425160000001
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Under",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Over",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2427.061338
      },
      {
        "question": "Match Winner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.785
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.215
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1746295.1057619979
      },
      {
        "question": "O/U 4.5 Games",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Under",
            "prob": 0.695
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Over",
            "prob": 0.305
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 9197.600483999997
      },
      {
        "question": "O/U 3.5 Games",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Over",
            "prob": 0.65
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Under",
            "prob": 0.35
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 126230.39032400002
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 3 Winner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.645
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.355
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 6893.565602999998
      },
      {
        "question": "Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs MOUZ (+2.5)",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.645
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.355
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 76005.984093
      },
      {
        "question": "Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.615
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.385
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 156364.0306439999
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 2 Winner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.555
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.445
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 84526.20131600002
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 4 Winner",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Vitality",
            "prob": 0.535
          },
          {
            "outcome": "MOUZ",
            "prob": 0.465
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 384.110437
      },
      {
        "question": "Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Over",
            "prob": 0.535
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Under",
            "prob": 0.465
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 0
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Esports",
      "counter strike 2",
      "Games",
      "Sports"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it\n\nThe event asks whether Vitality or MOUZ wins the scheduled best-of-five ESL Pro League grand final, with the main market resolving to the match winner. If the match is canceled or ends tied, it resolves 50–50; a postponement must be completed by October 25, 2026.[1] Current market-implied pricing favors Vitality at **79%**, versus **21% for MOUZ**. Related prices imply a strong Vitality start: 100% for Map 1 winner and the Map 1 -3.5-round handicap, with Under 21.5 Map 1 rounds also at 100%. Vitality is priced at 65% to win Map 3, while MOUZ is 65% on the overall map handicap of +2.5.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThe $3.01 million total volume across 12 active markets indicates substantial trading interest, but volume does not establish that the quoted probabilities are accurate. The structure suggests traders expect a Vitality match win, a relatively short series, and early-map dominance: Under 4.5 games is 70%, while Over 3.5 is 65%. These are market prices, not forecasts, and may reflect differing liquidity across props. Prices could move with lineup or availability news, map vetoes, schedule changes, match-play information, or new trading liquidity. The event is scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET.[1]\n\n- Map 1 Winner: Vitality 100% (vol $798,913.72)\n- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5): Vitality 100% (vol $1,174.64)\n- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5: Under 100% (vol $2,427.06)\n- Match Winner: Vitality 79% (vol $1.75M)\n- O/U 4.5 Games: Under 70% (vol $9,197.6)\n- O/U 3.5 Games: Over 65% (vol $126,230.39)\n- Map 3 Winner: Vitality 65% (vol $6,893.57)\n- Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs MOUZ (+2.5): MOUZ 65% (vol $76,005.98)\n- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5): Vitality 62% (vol $156,364.03)\n- Map 2 Winner: Vitality 56% (vol $84,526.2)\n- Map 4 Winner: Vitality 54% (vol $384.11)\n- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5: Over 54% (vol $0)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/esports/cs2/esl-pro-league/cs2-vit-mouz-2026-10-11"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/cs2/games"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/combos/esports/cs2"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://timesaver.gg/news/esl-pro-league-season-24-schedule-teams-format"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}