{ "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema", "type": "Event", "tier": "L2-full", "title": "Iowa State vs. BYU — Live Odds & Analysis", "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Iowa State vs. BYU\": Spread -10.5 BYU 99%. 12 markets, $710,121.63 volume. Real-money prediction-market data.", "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/cfb-iowast-byu-2026-10-09.html", "category": "predictions", "updated": "2026-10-10", "generated_at": "2026-10-10T06:16:37.435Z", "facts": [ { "label": "Total volume", "value": "$710,121.63" }, { "label": "24h volume", "value": "$705,697.41" }, { "label": "Markets", "value": "12" }, { "label": "Leading", "value": "BYU 99%" }, { "label": "Ends", "value": "2026-10-10" } ], "data": { "event": "Iowa State vs. BYU", "slug": "cfb-iowast-byu-2026-10-09", "volume_usd": 710121.6306779999, "volume_24h_usd": 705697.405701, "end_date": "2026-10-10T02:15:00Z", "markets": [ { "question": "Spread -10.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.993 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.007 } ], "volume_usd": 138.036257 }, { "question": "Spread -7.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.986 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.014 } ], "volume_usd": 1.387085 }, { "question": "Spread -6.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.978 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.022 } ], "volume_usd": 40 }, { "question": "Spread -5.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.9735 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.0265 } ], "volume_usd": 235 }, { "question": "Spread -4.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.9625 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.0375 } ], "volume_usd": 0 }, { "question": "Iowa State vs. BYU", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.925 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.075 } ], "volume_usd": 132641.13119599994 }, { "question": "Spread -14.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.5065 }, { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.4935 } ], "volume_usd": 86.227957 }, { "question": "Spread -8.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.505 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.495 } ], "volume_usd": 0 }, { "question": "Spread -16.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.5045 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.4955 } ], "volume_usd": 0 }, { "question": "Spread -20.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.5005 }, { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.4995 } ], "volume_usd": 0 }, { "question": "Spread -17.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.5 }, { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.5 } ], "volume_usd": 0 }, { "question": "Spread -13.5", "odds": [ { "outcome": "Iowa State", "prob": 0.5 }, { "outcome": "BYU", "prob": 0.5 } ], "volume_usd": 0 } ], "tags": [ "Sports", "CFB (All)", "Games", "CFB" ] }, "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are pricing it\n\nThe event asks which team wins Iowa State vs. BYU on October 9 at 10:15 p.m. ET; overtime counts, while a tie resolves 50–50. The main market prices BYU at **93% implied probability** and Iowa State at the residual implied probability. Spread markets are even more concentrated on BYU: BYU is priced at 96–99% across spreads from -4.5 to -10.5. The notable exceptions are BYU -8.5 at 51% and Iowa State -14.5 at 51%, reflecting different spread definitions and market structures.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThe stated **$710,121.63 total volume across 12 active markets** indicates substantial trading interest, but volume alone does not establish accuracy or consensus quality. Collectively, the prices imply that traders strongly favor a BYU win, while showing less uniform conviction about the eventual margin. The odds could move with information affecting expected team strength or game conditions, including confirmed availability news, late market trading, or developments involving the game’s scheduling and resolution status. These are market-implied probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. [1][4]\n\n- Spread -10.5: BYU 99% (vol $138.04)\n- Spread -7.5: BYU 99% (vol $1.39)\n- Spread -6.5: BYU 98% (vol $40)\n- Spread -5.5: BYU 97% (vol $235)\n- Spread -4.5: BYU 96% (vol $0)\n- Iowa State vs. BYU: BYU 93% (vol $132,641.13)\n- Spread -14.5: Iowa State 51% (vol $86.23)\n- Spread -8.5: BYU 51% (vol $0)\n- Spread -16.5: BYU 50% (vol $0)\n- Spread -20.5: BYU 50% (vol $0)\n- Spread -17.5: Iowa State 50% (vol $0)\n- Spread -13.5: Iowa State 50% (vol $0)", "sources": [ { "url": "https://polymarket.us/sports/football" }, { "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/cfb/games" }, { "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/football/games" }, { "url": "https://polymarket.com/sports/cfb/cfb-iowast-byu-2026-10-09" }, { "title": "Polymarket via AISA API", "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events" } ], "related": [ { "name": "Brazil Presidential Election", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/brazil-presidential-election.html" }, { "name": "Next French Presidential Election", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/next-french-presidential-election.html" }, { "name": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/ballon-dor-winner-2026.html" }, { "name": "Fed Decision in October?", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537.html" }, { "name": "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt.html" }, { "name": "Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces", "url": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/wnba-gsv-las-2026-10-09.html" } ], "pricing": { "price_usd": 0.01, "method": "402", "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify", "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token", "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html" }, "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)" }