{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Traders price Harry Kane as the most likely 2026 Ballon d'Or winner at 64.0% implied probability. The market resolves on France Football's declared winner, or to 'Other' if none is named by year-end. 12 markets, $51.09M volume on Polymarket.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/ballon-dor-winner-2026.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$51.09M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$881,934"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "12"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Harry Kane 64.0%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2027-01-01"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
    "slug": "ballon-dor-winner-2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-16T00:37:01.652Z",
    "volume_usd": 51087749.052806,
    "volume_24h_usd": 881933.543372,
    "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "Harry Kane",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.6405
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.3595
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 5758387.7712079985
      },
      {
        "question": "Lamine Yamal",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.2865
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.7135
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4218983.943654
      },
      {
        "question": "Kylian Mbappé",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.036
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.964
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3980826.383551
      },
      {
        "question": "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0045
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9955
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2870180.715887001
      },
      {
        "question": "Ousmane Dembélé",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 3584263.7871730016
      },
      {
        "question": "Michael Olise",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0025
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9975
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2770934.744756
      },
      {
        "question": "Erling Haaland",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2880710.2561669997
      },
      {
        "question": "Jude Bellingham",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1605135.5767259996
      },
      {
        "question": "Vinícius Júnior",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1083485.201325
      },
      {
        "question": "Declan Rice",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 960756.3985829998
      },
      {
        "question": "Vitinha",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 937955.5828219999
      },
      {
        "question": "Achraf Hakimi",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 764247.5056430001
      }
    ],
    "leading_history": [
      {
        "t": "09-16",
        "v": 0.5505
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.5735
      },
      {
        "t": "09-17",
        "v": 0.5645
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.5685
      },
      {
        "t": "09-18",
        "v": 0.5605
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.561
      },
      {
        "t": "09-19",
        "v": 0.549
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.5495
      },
      {
        "t": "09-20",
        "v": 0.5595
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.57
      },
      {
        "t": "09-21",
        "v": 0.5795
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.5805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-22",
        "v": 0.5705
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.5685
      },
      {
        "t": "09-23",
        "v": 0.5805
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.5815
      },
      {
        "t": "09-24",
        "v": 0.5785
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.5785
      },
      {
        "t": "09-25",
        "v": 0.5785
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.5775
      },
      {
        "t": "09-26",
        "v": 0.577
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.5585
      },
      {
        "t": "09-27",
        "v": 0.5585
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.5465
      },
      {
        "t": "09-28",
        "v": 0.5255
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.4225
      },
      {
        "t": "09-29",
        "v": 0.447
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.4225
      },
      {
        "t": "09-30",
        "v": 0.4275
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.428
      },
      {
        "t": "10-01",
        "v": 0.4085
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.362
      },
      {
        "t": "10-02",
        "v": 0.3895
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.4415
      },
      {
        "t": "10-03",
        "v": 0.4305
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.4495
      },
      {
        "t": "10-04",
        "v": 0.453
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.473
      },
      {
        "t": "10-05",
        "v": 0.4675
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.4855
      },
      {
        "t": "10-06",
        "v": 0.4805
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.479
      },
      {
        "t": "10-07",
        "v": 0.4815
      },
      {
        "t": "10-08",
        "v": 0.4925
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.544
      },
      {
        "t": "10-09",
        "v": 0.545
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.6045
      },
      {
        "t": "10-10",
        "v": 0.604
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.6375
      },
      {
        "t": "10-11",
        "v": 0.6685
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.6585
      },
      {
        "t": "10-12",
        "v": 0.664
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.6585
      },
      {
        "t": "10-13",
        "v": 0.6145
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.628
      },
      {
        "t": "10-14",
        "v": 0.6205
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.6255
      },
      {
        "t": "10-15",
        "v": 0.632
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.6405
      },
      {
        "t": "10-16",
        "v": 0.6405
      }
    ],
    "analysis": [
      {
        "h": "What the market asks and how it resolves",
        "body": "The market asks who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, the award presented by France Football. It resolves according to the declared winner, with France Football's official information as the primary source. If no 2026 winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'Other'. The event holds 12 active markets, total volume of $51.09M, and ends January 1, 2027. Recent 24h volume was $881,934."
      },
      {
        "h": "How traders price it now and how that moved",
        "body": "Harry Kane sits at 64.0% implied probability, the highest in the field. Over the last 60 half-day points, his line started at 55.0%, peaked at 66.8%, and bottomed at 36.2%. It now stands at 64.0%, up 9.0 percentage points from its starting level. The swing from the 36.2% low shows how quickly sentiment has shifted. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts."
      },
      {
        "h": "How concentrated the odds are",
        "body": "The odds are concentrated at the top. Harry Kane at 64.0% and Lamine Yamal at 28.6% together hold most of the implied probability. Kylian Mbappé follows at 3.6%. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise sit at 0.4% or lower. Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Declan Rice, Vitinha, and Achraf Hakimi each sit at 0.1%."
      }
    ],
    "drivers": [
      "Resolution follows the declared winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, verified through France Football's official information.",
      "If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' instead.",
      "France Football is the named primary source, so its announcement governs how the market settles."
    ],
    "faq": [
      {
        "q": "Who is currently leading the market?",
        "a": "Harry Kane leads with a 64.0% market-implied probability of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or, ahead of Lamine Yamal at 28.6%. These figures reflect current trading prices, not predictions of the actual result."
      },
      {
        "q": "What happens if no winner is announced in time?",
        "a": "If no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' according to its resolution text."
      },
      {
        "q": "Where does the resolution information come from?",
        "a": "The primary resolution source is official information from France Football, found at francefootball.fr. Its declared winner determines how the market settles."
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Soccer",
      "Sports",
      "Awards",
      "Ballon d'Or"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "Traders price Harry Kane as the most likely 2026 Ballon d'Or winner at 64.0% implied probability. The market resolves on France Football's declared winner, or to 'Other' if none is named by year-end.\n\n## What the market asks and how it resolves\n\nThe market asks who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, the award presented by France Football. It resolves according to the declared winner, with France Football's official information as the primary source. If no 2026 winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'Other'. The event holds 12 active markets, total volume of $51.09M, and ends January 1, 2027. Recent 24h volume was $881,934.\n\n## How traders price it now and how that moved\n\nHarry Kane sits at 64.0% implied probability, the highest in the field. Over the last 60 half-day points, his line started at 55.0%, peaked at 66.8%, and bottomed at 36.2%. It now stands at 64.0%, up 9.0 percentage points from its starting level. The swing from the 36.2% low shows how quickly sentiment has shifted. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.\n\n## How concentrated the odds are\n\nThe odds are concentrated at the top. Harry Kane at 64.0% and Lamine Yamal at 28.6% together hold most of the implied probability. Kylian Mbappé follows at 3.6%. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise sit at 0.4% or lower. Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Declan Rice, Vitinha, and Achraf Hakimi each sit at 0.1%.\n\n## Current odds\n\n- Harry Kane: 64.0% (vol $5.76M)\n- Lamine Yamal: 28.6% (vol $4.22M)\n- Kylian Mbappé: 3.6% (vol $3.98M)\n- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: 0.4% (vol $2.87M)\n- Ousmane Dembélé: 0.3% (vol $3.58M)\n- Michael Olise: 0.3% (vol $2.77M)\n- Erling Haaland: 0.1% (vol $2.88M)\n- Jude Bellingham: 0.1% (vol $1.61M)\n- Vinícius Júnior: 0.1% (vol $1.08M)\n- Declan Rice: 0.1% (vol $960,756)\n- Vitinha: 0.1% (vol $937,956)\n- Achraf Hakimi: 0.1% (vol $764,248)\n\n## What decides this market\n\n- Resolution follows the declared winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, verified through France Football's official information.\n- If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' instead.\n- France Football is the named primary source, so its announcement governs how the market settles.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Who is currently leading the market?**\nHarry Kane leads with a 64.0% market-implied probability of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or, ahead of Lamine Yamal at 28.6%. These figures reflect current trading prices, not predictions of the actual result.\n\n**What happens if no winner is announced in time?**\nIf no 2026 Ballon d'Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' according to its resolution text.\n\n**Where does the resolution information come from?**\nThe primary resolution source is official information from France Football, found at francefootball.fr. Its declared winner determines how the market settles.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 on Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header",
    "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}