{ "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema", "type": "NewsArticle", "tier": "L2-full", "title": "Macro & Fed News, Oct 13, 2026: Fed's Hammack backs restrictive stance as minutes point to another 2026 hike", "description": "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Oct. 12 that a restrictive policy stance is appropriate to return inflation to 2%. Fed minutes show most…", "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-13-macro.html", "category": "news", "updated": "2026-10-13", "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:31:00.015Z", "facts": [ { "label": "Desk", "value": "Macro & Fed" }, { "label": "Date", "value": "Tue, Oct 13, 2026" }, { "label": "Stories", "value": "5" }, { "label": "Outlets cited", "value": "4" }, { "label": "Items screened", "value": "4" }, { "label": "Freshness", "value": "last 48h" } ], "data": { "date": "2026-10-13", "cluster": "macro", "headline": "Fed's Hammack backs restrictive stance as minutes point to another 2026 hike", "dek": "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Oct. 12 that a restrictive policy stance is appropriate to return inflation to 2%. Fed minutes show most officials expect another increase this year.", "generated_at": "2026-10-13T11:35:14.126Z", "freshness_hours": 48, "stories": [ { "title": "Hammack says restrictive policy is warranted, favors quick small moves", "summary": "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member of the policymaking committee, told the National Association of Business Economics gathering on Oct. 12 that a restrictive stance is appropriate to secure a timely return to 2 percent inflation. She said smaller adjustments made relatively quickly are generally preferable to waiting and risking a bigger correction later. Hammack expects it to take some time to bring annual price growth down to the goal, given the breadth of current pressures. She said long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored but she is not taking that for granted.", "why": "A voting Fed member leaning toward further tightening raises the odds of more rate hikes, which affects bond yields, equity valuations and borrowing costs.", "sources": [ { "id": "S2", "title": "Beth Hammack on Fed policy and inflation risks", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html", "publisher": "cnbc.com", "published": "2026-10-12T17:08:43.000Z" } ], "entities": [] }, { "title": "Fed minutes: most officials see another rate increase needed this year", "summary": "Minutes of the Sept. 15-16 meeting show most Fed officials expect another rate increase will likely be needed in 2026 to fight inflation. Officials unanimously judged inflation still elevated, with little progress toward the 2% target in recent months. At that meeting the Fed raised its key rate by a quarter-point to about 3.9%, its first increase in three years. The move defied President Donald Trump's calls for cuts and drew his criticism of the rate-setting committee, though he voiced continued support for Chairman Kevin Warsh.", "why": "The minutes confirm the Fed's tightening bias and show political pressure has not changed its course, shaping rate expectations through year-end.", "sources": [ { "id": "S4", "title": "Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham", "url": "https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930", "publisher": "abc11.com", "published": "2026-10-11T17:25:06.000Z" }, { "id": "S2", "title": "Beth Hammack on Fed policy and inflation risks", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html", "publisher": "cnbc.com", "published": "2026-10-12T17:08:43.000Z" } ], "entities": [] }, { "title": "Traders see rates held later this month, hike likely in December", "summary": "According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders priced in a more than 78% likelihood that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at its policy meeting later this month. They see a nearly 88% chance of a hike at the final meeting of the year in December. Hammack's remarks implied further increases could come, while the September minutes did not give a clear timeline. The Fed's preferred core price gauge registered 3% year over year in August, with the headline PCE index at 3.4%.", "why": "Futures pricing points to a pause then a December move, and inflation readings well above 2% keep hike risk on the table.", "sources": [ { "id": "S2", "title": "Beth Hammack on Fed policy and inflation risks", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html", "publisher": "cnbc.com", "published": "2026-10-12T17:08:43.000Z" }, { "id": "S4", "title": "Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham", "url": "https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930", "publisher": "abc11.com", "published": "2026-10-11T17:25:06.000Z" } ], "entities": [] }, { "title": "Fuel prices from the Iran war drive inflation the Fed is trying to contain", "summary": "CNN reports that inflation is being driven mainly by fuel prices, which have surged since the war with Iran broke out in February. The Fed has little influence over oil production, but is raising rates to stop higher energy costs from spreading into the wider economy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said last month that supply-driven inflation may be easier to tame than the post-pandemic demand-driven kind, yet it will not be painless. The piece frames the central bank's task as balancing price stability against a healthy labor market.", "why": "Energy-led inflation limits what the Fed can fix, raising the risk that higher rates weigh on growth without lowering oil costs.", "sources": [ { "id": "S3", "title": "Fed officials are warning of more pain. Many Americans are already feeling it", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/12/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-pain", "publisher": "cnn.com", "published": "2026-10-12T09:30:45.000Z" } ], "entities": [ "XOM" ] }, { "title": "Consumers keep spending despite inflation, slower wages and weak confidence", "summary": "NBC News reports that American consumers are still spending even as prices rise, wage growth slows and confidence sits near record lows. The article describes the economy as confusing and asks how long the resilience can last, noting that the coming week could bring fresh signs of trouble. Sustained spending complicates the Fed's task, since demand that holds up gives policymakers less reason to ease while inflation remains elevated.", "why": "Durable consumer demand supports corporate earnings but may keep the Fed hawkish; any crack in spending would shift rate and growth expectations.", "sources": [ { "id": "S1", "title": "Inflation and job growth: Why American consumers keep spending", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/inflation-job-growth-consumer-spending-rcna603044", "publisher": "nbcnews.com", "published": "2026-10-12T23:15:45.000Z" } ], "entities": [] } ], "market": [ { "id": "SPY", "kind": "equity", "last": 778.1, "asOf": "2026-10-12", "d1": -0.06036708324235807, "d30": 1.8069057556686676, "series": [ 767.05, 761.78, 765.16, 773.17, 770.19, 765.96, 762.4, 757.83, 764.29, 760.88, 757.39, 754.05, 762.6, 761.69, 773.5, 773.38, 767.81, 767.18, 771.35, 765.61, 764.2, 762.63, 763.99, 769.64, 774.83, 779.09, 777.22, 773.93, 778.57, 778.1 ] }, { "id": "TLT", "kind": "equity", "last": 78.05, "asOf": "2026-10-12", "d1": 0.08976660682225336, "d30": -3.4870780264622323, "series": [ 82.52, 81.87, 81.95, 82.07, 82.21, 82.2, 81.73, 80.78, 80.87, 80.93, 80.71, 80.88, 81.78, 81.25, 81.8, 81.75, 80.46, 79.42, 79.32, 78.62, 78.23, 77.78, 77.71, 77.48, 77.11, 77.28, 77.14, 77.87, 77.98, 78.05 ] }, { "id": "GLD", "kind": "equity", "last": 382.15, "asOf": "2026-10-12", "d1": -0.631858130948049, "d30": -4.167816034305491, "series": [ 408.42, 396.75, 402.78, 410.22, 406.77, 399.72, 403.35, 396.36, 398.77, 392.84, 394.15, 391.74, 398.36, 401.17, 398.38, 400.07, 392.88, 391.69, 393.41, 377.91, 382.89, 380.84, 382.76, 380.14, 379.55, 382.27, 375.88, 378.62, 384.58, 382.15 ] }, { "id": "UUP", "kind": "equity", "last": 29.13, "asOf": "2026-10-12", "d1": 0.37904893177119037, "d30": 3.776273601710006, "series": [ 28.12, 28.21, 28.17, 28.01, 28.08, 27.99, 27.98, 28.03, 28.07, 28.17, 28.22, 28.4, 28.38, 28.39, 28.48, 28.48, 28.65, 28.69, 28.62, 28.7, 28.75, 28.77, 28.96, 28.89, 28.99, 28.9, 29.04, 28.98, 29.02, 29.13 ] }, { "id": "XOM", "kind": "equity", "last": 172.15, "asOf": "2026-10-12", "d1": 1.9000828696578715, "d30": 3.7110669317428737, "series": [ 160.95, 164.55, 164.15, 162.21, 159.47, 160.66, 164.23, 165.23, 165.99, 165.08, 169.32, 163.32, 163.27, 163.54, 158.3, 158.71, 161.23, 162.14, 160.59, 162.52, 161.35, 162.75, 163.82, 164.01, 164, 164.48, 164.05, 168.5, 168.94, 172.15 ] } ], "policy_rates": [ { "bank": "RBI", "name": "Reserve Bank of India", "date": "2026-07-23", "rate": 5.25 }, { "bank": "RBA", "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia", "date": "2026-09-24", "rate": 4.35 }, { "bank": "FED", "name": "Federal Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06", "rate": 3.875 }, { "bank": "BOE", "name": "Bank of England", "date": "2026-10-05", "rate": 3.75 }, { "bank": "BOK", "name": "Bank of Korea", "date": "2026-08-28", "rate": 3 }, { "bank": "PBOC", "name": "People's Bank of China", "date": "2026-10-06", "rate": 3 }, { "bank": "ECB", "name": "European Central Bank", "date": "2026-10-06", "rate": 2.5 }, { "bank": "BOC", "name": "Bank of Canada", "date": "2026-10-05", "rate": 2.25 }, { "bank": "BOJ", "name": "Bank of Japan", "date": "2026-10-06", "rate": 1.25 }, { "bank": "SNB", "name": "Swiss National Bank", "date": "2026-10-06", "rate": 0 } ], "prediction_markets": [ { "title": "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", "slug": "how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026", "volume": 54070875.92485999, "rows": [ { "label": "0 (0 bps)", "value": 0.9635 }, { "label": "1 (25 bps)", "value": 0.0175 }, { "label": "2 (50 bps)", "value": 0.0075 }, { "label": "3 (75 bps)", "value": 0.0025 }, { "label": "4 (100 bps)", "value": 0.0015 } ] }, { "title": "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?", "slug": "what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026", "volume": 6990410.395941, "rows": [ { "label": "4.25%", "value": 0.522 }, { "label": "4.0%", "value": 0.231 }, { "label": "≥ 4.5%", "value": 0.1565 }, { "label": "3.5%", "value": 0.0155 }, { "label": "3.75%", "value": 0.0095 } ] } ], "watch": [ { "text": "The Fed's policy meeting later this month, where CME FedWatch shows more than 78% odds that rates are left unchanged.", "sources": [ "S2" ] }, { "text": "The Fed's final meeting of the year in December, where traders see a nearly 88% chance of a rate hike.", "sources": [ "S2" ] }, { "text": "Economic data this week that NBC News says could bring fresh signs of trouble for consumer spending.", "sources": [ "S1" ] } ], "takeaways": [ "Hammack, a voting Fed member, says a restrictive stance is appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent.", "September minutes show most officials expect another rate increase in 2026 after the quarter-point hike to about 3.9%.", "Traders see a pause later this month but a nearly 88% chance of a December hike." ], "faq": [ { "q": "Will the Fed raise interest rates again in 2026?", "a": "Minutes from the Sept. 15-16 meeting show most officials expect another increase will likely be needed this year. CME FedWatch shows a nearly 88% chance of a hike in December, and more than 78% odds of no change at the meeting later this month." }, { "q": "What did Beth Hammack say about Fed policy?", "a": "On Oct. 12 she said a restrictive stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation. She prefers smaller adjustments made relatively quickly over waiting and risking a larger correction, and expects it will take some time to reach the goal." }, { "q": "What is driving US inflation right now?", "a": "CNN reports inflation is driven mainly by fuel prices, which have surged since the war with Iran began in February. The Fed is raising rates to keep higher energy costs from spreading to other parts of the economy. August PCE inflation was 3.4% year over year." } ], "count": 5, "items": [ { "title": "Inflation and job growth: Why American consumers keep spending", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/inflation-job-growth-consumer-spending-rcna603044", "source": "nbcnews.com", "date": "Mon, 12 Oct 2026 23:15:45 GMT", "tickers": [], "iso": "2026-10-12T23:15:45.000Z" }, { "title": "Beth Hammack on Fed policy and inflation risks", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html", "source": "cnbc.com", "date": "Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:08:43 GMT", "tickers": [], "iso": "2026-10-12T17:08:43.000Z" }, { "title": "Fed officials are warning of more pain. Many Americans are already feeling it", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/12/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-pain", "source": "cnn.com", "date": "Mon, 12 Oct 2026 09:30:45 GMT", "tickers": [], "iso": "2026-10-12T09:30:45.000Z" }, { "title": "Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham", "url": "https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930", "source": "abc11.com", "date": "Sun, 11 Oct 2026 17:25:06 GMT", "tickers": [], "iso": "2026-10-11T17:25:06.000Z" } ] }, "analysis_md": "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Oct. 12 that a restrictive policy stance is appropriate to return inflation to 2%. Fed minutes show most officials expect another increase this year.\n## Hammack says restrictive policy is warranted, favors quick small moves\nCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member of the policymaking committee, told the National Association of Business Economics gathering on Oct. 12 that a restrictive stance is appropriate to secure a timely return to 2 percent inflation. She said smaller adjustments made relatively quickly are generally preferable to waiting and risking a bigger correction later. Hammack expects it to take some time to bring annual price growth down to the goal, given the breadth of current pressures. She said long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored but she is not taking that for granted.\n**Why it matters:** A voting Fed member leaning toward further tightening raises the odds of more rate hikes, which affects bond yields, equity valuations and borrowing costs.\nSources: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html)\n## Fed minutes: most officials see another rate increase needed this year\nMinutes of the Sept. 15-16 meeting show most Fed officials expect another rate increase will likely be needed in 2026 to fight inflation. Officials unanimously judged inflation still elevated, with little progress toward the 2% target in recent months. At that meeting the Fed raised its key rate by a quarter-point to about 3.9%, its first increase in three years. The move defied President Donald Trump's calls for cuts and drew his criticism of the rate-setting committee, though he voiced continued support for Chairman Kevin Warsh.\n**Why it matters:** The minutes confirm the Fed's tightening bias and show political pressure has not changed its course, shaping rate expectations through year-end.\nSources: [abc11.com](https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930), [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html)\n## Traders see rates held later this month, hike likely in December\nAccording to CME's FedWatch tool, traders priced in a more than 78% likelihood that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at its policy meeting later this month. They see a nearly 88% chance of a hike at the final meeting of the year in December. Hammack's remarks implied further increases could come, while the September minutes did not give a clear timeline. The Fed's preferred core price gauge registered 3% year over year in August, with the headline PCE index at 3.4%.\n**Why it matters:** Futures pricing points to a pause then a December move, and inflation readings well above 2% keep hike risk on the table.\nSources: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html), [abc11.com](https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930)\n## Fuel prices from the Iran war drive inflation the Fed is trying to contain\nCNN reports that inflation is being driven mainly by fuel prices, which have surged since the war with Iran broke out in February. The Fed has little influence over oil production, but is raising rates to stop higher energy costs from spreading into the wider economy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said last month that supply-driven inflation may be easier to tame than the post-pandemic demand-driven kind, yet it will not be painless. The piece frames the central bank's task as balancing price stability against a healthy labor market.\n**Why it matters:** Energy-led inflation limits what the Fed can fix, raising the risk that higher rates weigh on growth without lowering oil costs.\nSources: [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/12/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-pain)\n## Consumers keep spending despite inflation, slower wages and weak confidence\nNBC News reports that American consumers are still spending even as prices rise, wage growth slows and confidence sits near record lows. The article describes the economy as confusing and asks how long the resilience can last, noting that the coming week could bring fresh signs of trouble. Sustained spending complicates the Fed's task, since demand that holds up gives policymakers less reason to ease while inflation remains elevated.\n**Why it matters:** Durable consumer demand supports corporate earnings but may keep the Fed hawkish; any crack in spending would shift rate and growth expectations.\nSources: [nbcnews.com](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/inflation-job-growth-consumer-spending-rcna603044)\n## Data behind the stories\n\nSPY closed at $778.1 on Oct. 12, down 0.06% on the day and up 1.81% over about a month. TLT is down 3.49% over roughly a month, while UUP rose 0.38% on the day and 3.78% over the period, and GLD is down 4.17% over about a month. Polymarket gives 96.4% to zero Fed cuts in 2026, with 4.25% the most likely year-end rate at 52.2%, consistent with the hawkish Fed tone.\n\n- UUP: +3.78% (~1-month)\n- XOM: +3.71% (~1-month)\n- SPY: +1.81% (~1-month)\n- TLT: -3.49% (~1-month)\n- GLD: -4.17% (~1-month)\n\n**How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?** (Polymarket): 0 (0 bps) 96.4%; 1 (25 bps) 1.8%; 2 (50 bps) 0.8%; 3 (75 bps) 0.3%; 4 (100 bps) 0.1%\n\n**What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?** (Polymarket): 4.25% 52.2%; 4.0% 23.1%; ≥ 4.5% 15.7%; 3.5% 1.6%; 3.75% 0.9%\n\n## What to watch\n\n- The Fed's policy meeting later this month, where CME FedWatch shows more than 78% odds that rates are left unchanged.\n- The Fed's final meeting of the year in December, where traders see a nearly 88% chance of a rate hike.\n- Economic data this week that NBC News says could bring fresh signs of trouble for consumer spending.\n\n## Key takeaways\n\n- Hammack, a voting Fed member, says a restrictive stance is appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent.\n- September minutes show most officials expect another rate increase in 2026 after the quarter-point hike to about 3.9%.\n- Traders see a pause later this month but a nearly 88% chance of a December hike.\n\n## FAQ\n\n**Will the Fed raise interest rates again in 2026?**\nMinutes from the Sept. 15-16 meeting show most officials expect another increase will likely be needed this year. CME FedWatch shows a nearly 88% chance of a hike in December, and more than 78% odds of no change at the meeting later this month.\n\n**What did Beth Hammack say about Fed policy?**\nOn Oct. 12 she said a restrictive stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation. She prefers smaller adjustments made relatively quickly over waiting and risking a larger correction, and expects it will take some time to reach the goal.\n\n**What is driving US inflation right now?**\nCNN reports inflation is driven mainly by fuel prices, which have surged since the war with Iran began in February. The Fed is raising rates to keep higher energy costs from spreading to other parts of the economy. August PCE inflation was 3.4% year over year.\n", "sources": [ { "title": "Beth Hammack on Fed policy and inflation risks", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html" }, { "title": "Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation - ABC11 Raleigh-Durham", "url": "https://abc11.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930" }, { "title": "Fed officials are warning of more pain. Many Americans are already feeling it", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/12/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-pain" }, { "title": "Inflation and job growth: Why American consumers keep spending", "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/inflation-job-growth-consumer-spending-rcna603044" } ], "related": [ { "name": "AI & Compute: Microsoft to deploy in-house Maia AI chips at scale from 2027, challenging Nvidia", "url": "https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-13-ai.html" }, { "name": "Crypto: Strategy adds 250 BTC at $86,194 average, lifting holdings to 848,250 BTC", "url": "https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-13-crypto.html" }, { "name": "Earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman and UnitedHealth Report Tuesday as Earnings Season Opens", "url": "https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-13-earnings.html" }, { "name": "Markets: Dow Gains While Memory Stocks Weigh on Nasdaq as S&P 500 Edges Lower", "url": "https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-13-markets.html" } ], "pricing": { "price_usd": 0.005, "method": "402", "endpoint": "https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify", "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with the X-Crawler-Token header", "onboarding": "https://esa.aisa.one/agent/guide.html" }, "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)" }