# Macro & Fed News, Oct 11, 2026: Odds of an October Fed rate hike fall to 20% after weak jobs report

> Futures now price a 20% chance of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting, down from 71% on Sept. 28, after September payrolls rose just 29,000 and…

- **Canonical:** https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-11-macro.html
- **Updated:** 2026-10-11
- **Category:** news
- **Full structured data:** `/news/2026-10-11-macro.data.json` — $0.005 via AISA HTTP 402 (https://esa.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify; agents set crawlerAutoPrice=true)

## Key data

- **Desk:** Macro & Fed
- **Date:** Sun, Oct 11, 2026
- **Stories:** 6
- **Outlets cited:** 6
- **Items screened:** 8
- **Freshness:** last 48h

Futures now price a 20% chance of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting, down from 71% on Sept. 28, after September payrolls rose just 29,000 and unemployment reached 4.2%. ## Fed hike bets collapse as jobs data softens and inflation cools Futures traders see a 20% probability of a Fed rate increase at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, compared with 71% on Sept. 28. The September jobs report showed 29,000 new jobs against an expectation of at least 84,000, and unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Core PCE inflation eased to 3% year over …

_…full analysis and the complete dataset are available to agents for $0.005 — fetch `/news/2026-10-11-macro.data.json` (HTTP 402)._

## Sources

1. [Expectations of Another Fed Rate Hike This Month Are Shifting Dramatically](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/SCHW/pressreleases/5729306/expectations-of-another-fed-rate-hike-this-month-are-shifting-dramatically)
2. [Inflation target of 2% may not stop the next Fed rate freeze | Market Analysis](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/8d3d6-what-would-actually-stop-the-fed-from-raising-rates-again)
3. [Unemployment rate climbs as views of economy sinks | Business](https://www.rockymounttelegram.com/news/business/unemployment-rate-climbs-as-views-of-economy-sinks/article_fba2da6e-1dac-4d27-b61c-4f42bb989041.html)
4. [What To Expect In Markets This Week: JPM, GS, C Bank Earnings, CPI Report, Kevin Warsh's Speech And More](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:919372b0b094b:0-what-to-expect-in-markets-this-week-jpm-gs-c-bank-earnings-cpi-report-kevin-warsh-s-speech-and-more/)
5. [Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire her | Business](http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20261011/trump-establishes-committee-investigate-federal-reserves-lisa-cook-latest)
6. [CBO: US needs 5–6% real GDP growth to stabilize debt](https://ua.news/en/finansi/glava-cbo-otsiniv-shcho-dlia-stabilizatsiyi-borgu-ssha-potribne-zrostannia-realnogo-vvp-na-5-6-fortune)

## Related

- [AI & Compute: Anthropic, OpenAI lean on outside evaluators as AI safety debate intensifies](https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-11-ai.html)
- [Crypto: ESMA Gives EU Crypto Firms Three Months to Unwind Non-MiCA Stablecoins](https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-11-crypto.html)
- [Earnings: Big Banks Report Tuesday as JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup Lead Earnings Week](https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-11-earnings.html)
- [Markets: Brent Rises to $105.10 as Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Escalate](https://agentflare.org/news/2026-10-11-markets.html)

---
_Part of AgentFlare, an agent-native data network powered by AISA. https://aisa.one/docs_